On March 6, Wu Qing, chairperson of the Securities Supervision Commission, said at the economic theme press conference of the third session of the 14th National People's Congress that the State Administration of Financial Supervision launched the second batch of long-term stock investment pilots for insurance funds, and approved 52 billion yuan before the Spring Festival. Two days ago, 60 billion yuan was approved, and the follow-up will be further expanded.
US consumers' expectations of long-term inflation rose to their highest level in three decades amid fears that Mr. Trump's tariffs will lead to higher prices. According to the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Survey, consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.5 per cent over the next five to 10 years, the highest level since 1995 in data compiled by Bloomberg.
Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell said that the Federal Reserve cannot control long-term interest rates, which are determined by supply and demand in the bond market; the risk perspective of budget deficits and inflation expectations is one of the main factors contributing to the rise in long-term interest rates.
According to on-chain analyst @ali_charts, the total holdings of long-term bitcoin holders have decreased by more than 75,000 BTC in the past week.
Federal Reserve Barkin: There is a growing recognition that long-term interest rates may not fall as sharply as once hoped.
IntoTheBlock disclosed the trend of the percentage of long-term holders of Bitcoin and Ethereum in the past year on the X platform. The data shows that the proportion of long-term holders of Bitcoin has declined, while the proportion of long-term holders of Ethereum has been rising and surpassed Bitcoin at the beginning of the year. According to the current data of the indicator, the proportion of long-term holders of Bitcoin is 62.31%, and the proportion of long-term holders of Ethereum is 75.0...
On December 25th, under the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference to strengthen the implementation of the "two new" policy and support the "two" projects more vigorously, the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds in 2025 will usher in a strong expansion. Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that it will reach 2 trillion yuan. He also pointed out that another 1 trillion yuan of special government bonds will be used to support the six major banks ...
On December 24, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian announced that at the invitation of Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, Serbian Foreign Minister Ritchie will pay an official visit to China from December 19 to 21.
According to the long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric, Bitcoin has entered the euphoria phase. Quinten François, co-founder of WeRate, wrote in an X post on December 7 that this could extend bitcoin's rally until the end of 2025: "Bitcoin is entering an excitement phase. There are at most 12 months before the peak of the cycle."
According to IntoTheBlock data, the current holdings of long-term bitcoin holders have dropped to 12.45 million, setting a new low since July 2022. The data shows that the reduction of long-term holders in this cycle is only 9.8%, compared with 15% in the 2021 bull cycle and 26% in the 2017 bull cycle.
Glassnode analysis pointed out that the current long-term holders realized profits of up to $2.02 billion per day, setting a new all-time high, exceeding the record in March. The market needs a strong demand side to fully absorb this excess supply, which may require a re-accumulation phase to fully digest. Interestingly, since the supply of long-term holders peaked in September, this group has distributed around 507,000 bitcoins, albeit a sizeable amount.
Strategists point out that in addition to long-term holders starting to sell, there are more fundamental reasons that are preventing Bitcoin from hitting the 100,000 dollar mark.
According to Spot On Chain, an investor who held INJ for a long time and made a profit of $15 million sold 243,699 INJ ($7.39 million) to Bybit and CowSwap in the past 12 hours, triggering a 7.7% price drop. Notably, the whale amassed most of the tokens in the early days (February 2021 to July 2022), with an average price of around $10.92, and later sold them twice in 2023 and 2024 for around $35.90. This resulted in an estimated total profit of $15.21 million (2.3x return) over 3.5 years.
According to Spot On Chain, 4 hours ago, a long-term holder returned to Binance after sitting idle for 5 months, depositing 50,000 ENS ($1.66 million) for a profit of $968,000. The whale accumulated 322,739 ENS in 2022 for about $13.86, sold 272,739 ENS since January 2024 for about $20.75, and now holds 50,000 ENS for an estimated total profit of $2.90 million (+ 65%).
The data tracked by Glassnode shows that bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) have recently started to sell off on a large scale, with monthly sales reaching their highest level since April 2024, reaching 366,000 BTC. The data shows that in the LTH, the group with a holding duration of 6 months to 12 months leads the way, selling an average of 25,600 BTC per day. Most of the recent selling activity has come from this specific group of investors.